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New Poll Shows Sheriff Joe Arpaio Trailing and Trump Leading in Upcoming Election

Sheriff Joe may have his toughest battle ahead after six consecutive terms in office

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – A new Maricopa County poll conducted by Lincoln Strategy Group shows Sheriff Joe Arpaio trailing to Democrat challenger Paul Penzone and Donald Trump leading. Should Arpaio win the primary in August, he would face off with Penzone in the upcoming November election for Maricopa County Sheriff.

According to Nathan Sproul, Managing Director of Lincoln Strategy Group, “It appears that the ‘toughest sheriff’ in America, Joe Arpaio, is in the toughest race of his career. The voters may be saying it’s finally time for a change. He still has plenty of time to right the ship, but needs to define Penzone quickly or it may be too late.” When undecided voters were pressed to make a decision, they broke strongly in Penzone’s favor, bringing the final ballot to 52-48%.

The poll also included a head-to- head match-up for President between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Although only conducted in Maricopa County, the poll shows Trump leading 41% to Clinton’s 32%. Sproul added, “It appears that Trump is consolidating his Republican support while Clinton has yet to convince Arizona Democrats. These numbers are exactly where a Republican candidate for President needs to be in Maricopa County if they are going to win the state of Arizona.”

Polling Results with Undecideds:

PENZONE:             44.5%

ARPAIO:                 41.8%

UNDECIDED:         13.7%

Polling Results with No Undecideds:

PENZONE:            52.3%

ARPAIO:                47.7%

TRUMP:                  41.0%

CLINTON:               32.3%

UNDECIDED:         15.9%


The poll surveyed 2,971 voters on July 20th and has a margin of error of 1.8%.

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